While Trump and his media team have made every effort to portray the skirmish with Iran as a success, the reality is it has turned the focus of the world, and Pentagon, to the fact the US and Israeli military are suffering from chronically and dangerously low levels of ammo.
Without ammo, an army cannot fight a war.
Moroever, the US and West lack the industrial capacity to produce lots of ammo.
According to some estimates, the US navy may have just a few thousand missiles left altogether after giving large numbers to the Ukraine and Israel.
Depending on the US defence industries stocks of rare earth minerals, it may run out of the capacity to produce new missiles, fighter jets, hi tech weapons this summer because Trump has de facto cut off China s exports of critical minerals in an illjudged trade war.
A company called USA Rare Earth is seeking to produce critical minerals but it envisages at least 12 to 24 months to get started.
"We’re sitting right here. We’re in America. We’ve got an incredible deposit. We just need to get it developed and get these minerals out of the ground so we can get the metals. This is a nearer-term milestone — 12 to 24 months at this stage.”
https://www.mining.com/usa-rare-earth-merges-with-inflection-point-debuts-on-nasdaq/
This shortfall in critical minerals for the defence industry comes just as Trump and his cronies are trying to start a war with Iran, Russia and China, who have lots of missiles, lots of capacity to produce more and lots of new space, electronic, hypersonic hi tech weapons.
In fact, America s enemies could now strike the US itself with missiles with few air missile defences in place to stop them.
From media
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/06/22/us-rare-earth-neodymium-magnets-china/
The mathematical maximum number of Standard Missiles in U.S. inventory is 11,000, meaning that those 155 Standard Missiles constitute roughly 1% of the maximum U.S. inventory—more likely closer to 2%, due to arsenal age and attrition. That’s a lot considering the relative strength of the Houthis to China, and that most of those Tomahawks were used in less than a day.
https://www.heritage.org/defense/commentary/the-us-navy-running-dangerously-low-munitions
Critical Minerals and Defence Technologies
Critical minerals are essential in modern defence technologies, enhancing the performance, durability, and efficiency of surveillance, targeting, navigation, and weapon systems. Rare earth elements enable advanced radar, sonar, laser guidance, communication, and propulsion technologies, ensuring superior precision, stability, and resilience in combat environments. From radar and sonar systems to precision-guided munitions, high-powered magnets, and night vision optics, these minerals contribute to high-performance electronics, sensors, and control mechanisms across land, air, sea, and space. Their role in electromagnetic systems, laser weaponry, and military-grade electrical equipment makes them indispensable for national security and technological superiority. Securing a stable supply chain for these strategic materials is crucial for maintaining defence capabilities, driving innovation, and ensuring long-term military readiness in an evolving global landscape.
https://www.sfa-oxford.com/knowledge-and-insights/critical-minerals-in-low-carbon-and-future-technologies/critical-minerals-in-defence-and-national-security/
https://www.precedenceresearch.com/rare-earth-minerals-market
In a major regional conflict—such as a war with China in the Taiwan Strait—the U.S. use of munitions would likely exceed the current stockpiles of the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD).
According to the results of a series of CSIS war games, the United States would likely run out of some munitions—such as long-range, precision-guided munitions.
This would occur in less than one week in a Taiwan Strait conflict.
The U.S. defense industrial base also lacks adequate surge capacity for a major war.
These shortfalls would make it difficult for the United States to sustain a protracted conflict.
These problems are particularly concerning since the rate at which China has been acquiring high-end weapons systems and equipment is five to six times faster than the United States, according to some U.S. government estimates.
Challenges with the U.S. defense industrial base are not new. However, there are at least three developments that have added new urgency to resolving the challenges with the industrial base and deterring Chinese aggression:
However, in every iteration of the war game, the United States expended its inventory of Long-Range Anti-Ship Missiles within the first week of the conflict, creating a critical problem of “empty bins.”
It takes nearly two years to produce a Long-Range Anti-Ship Missile, creating a time lag to fix the shortfall.
In a recent war game involving U.S., UK, and French forces, titled Warfighter 21-4, the United Kingdom’s 3rd Division exhausted national stockpiles of critical munitions in just over a week.
During Warfighter Exercise 21-4, Gen. Garrett, U.S. Army Forces Command commanding general, visits the U.K.'s primary site on April 8 at Fort Hood, Texas.
During Warfighter Exercise 21-4, Gen. Michael Garrett, U.S. Army Forces Command commanding general, visits the United Kingdom's primary site on April 8 at Fort Hood. | U.S. Army/Sgt. Evan Ruchotzke
U.S. lieutenant general (ret.) Ben Hodges, former commanding general of U.S. Army Europe, remarked that “in about eight days of exercise, every bit of important ammunition in the British Army’s inventory was expended.”
He continued that the United States and its allies “absolutely do not have enough of the critical munitions that we need, especially what is called the preferred munitions—the ones that are precise in targeting.”
https://features.csis.org/preparing-the-US-industrial-base-to-deter-conflict-with-China/
Israel and Iran are approaching one week of some of the most intense fighting ever witnessed between the two. But how long can the hostilities continue, and what kind of impact is the conflict having on US weapons stockpiles?
Analysts and current and former US officials believe the conflict is unlikely to develop into a long-term campaign. “It’s closer to days than months, and Iran has more problems than Israel,” a former senior American official said.
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Israel has deeper stockpiles and more advanced military capabilities than Iran. Tehran, officials say, is not only facing weapons shortages, but also serious coordination problems after Israel killed several top generals and senior aides.
“This makes it much more difficult for Iran’s military to cooperate and launch attacks,” a second former official said.
Despite that, there are growing concerns in Washington over the depletion of US missile interceptors and other air defense systems, which have either been transferred to Israel or used by American forces to fend off Iranian missile and drone attacks.
“This [Israel-Iran conflict] is eating away at our reserves,” one of the former US officials said. But this person added, “time works against Iran more than against Israel.”
Over the last two years, the US military also used a significant number of munitions to counter Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. That continued until the Trump administration launched an offensive campaign targeting Houthi leadership and weapons infrastructure inside Yemen. The effort consumed large quantities of US missiles, including SM-2, SM-3, and SM-6 interceptors.
Meanwhile, the US defense industrial base has been under significant strain since the United States committed billions of dollars in weapons to Ukraine following Russia’s invasion. The monthslong Houthi campaign further depleted US stockpiles before the ceasefire was reached last month, putting a pause on the daily use of weapons in the region.
Michael Eisenstadt, the director of The Washington Institute's Military and Security Studies Program, said the US needed to be concerned about its weapons inventories not just because of the crises in the Middle East, “but in case a crisis with China or on the Korean Peninsula were to occur, in which ammunition expenditure rates are expected to be much higher.”
On Wednesday, Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Roger Wicker raised the alarm during a hearing with the Pentagon chief and the top US military commander, as they reviewed the administration’s proposed defense budget.
“This is the most dangerous national security moment since World War II. Unconstrained, aggressive dictators are on the move. And, importantly, the character of warfare is rapidly changing,” Wicker said.
He also criticized the budget request, warning that it lacks the strategic investments needed to rebuild the US defense industrial base.
US defense of Israel
Israel’s ambassador to the US said this week that Iran possesses around 2,000 ballistic missiles. Israeli media reports suggest that about 400 of those have already been launched. Iran is also believed to possess an unknown number of lower-cost cruise missiles and drones, which it often uses in mass salvos aimed at overwhelming Israeli and US air defenses.
The US currently has at least one — possibly two — Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) batteries deployed in Israel. These were used to help intercept Iranian missile attacks during last year’s escalation.
US officials told the Wall Street Journal that Israel is facing mounting difficulties in replenishing its interceptor stockpiles. The Israeli military depends on a multi-layered air defense architecture, supported in part by US systems, to manage sustained missile threats. This includes the Arrow 2 and Arrow 3 systems for intercepting medium- and long-range ballistic missiles, as well as David’s Sling and Iron Dome for short-range rockets and projectiles.
Eisenstadt said Israel was “burning” through its missile defense inventory. However, he emphasized that Israel’s ability to destroy Iranian missile launchers has helped reduce the number of incoming missiles, making the threat more manageable.
Whether or not the US joins direct strikes against Iran could further affect Israel’s need for additional interceptors.
https://english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-east/2025/06/18/analysis-how-long-can-israel-and-iran-fight-and-how-is-it-impacting-us-stockpiles
We don’t really know how many missiles have been used to date, but what has been publicly disclosed should be viewed as a very conservative estimate. In addition, we don’t know the exact inventory levels of critical weapons, as such information could be of great use to our enemies. However, according to a report by the Heritage Foundation, up through 2023, the Pentagon had procured roughly 12,000 Standard Missile-2s (SM-2), 400 Standard Missile-3s (SM-3), 1,500 Standard Missile-6s (SM-6), and 9,000 Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles (TLAM). During this same period, the U.S. Navy has expended at least 2,800 Standard Missiles and 2,900 TLAMs. And these figures do not include the previously mentioned expenditures of the last year or so.
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Put another way, the entirety of our Navy’s warships, not including quad packs of shorter-ranged air defense missiles, can carry about 10,000 missiles in their vertical launch systems that can be used for wide-area defense or long-range attacks. So, as things stand, once we expend the full complement of our VLS launched missiles, we are roughly 3,000 missiles short of being able to fully replenish our ships.
Yet another aspect of how much stress could potentially be placed on our missile inventories is that, while we do have a relatively large number of SM-2 missiles, we only have some 400 SM-3 class missiles, the defense system most capable of destroying powerful ballistic missiles before they can threaten population centers or military targets.
And in April of this year, two of our Arleigh Burke guided missile destroyers used four to seven of these scarce SM-3 missiles to attempt the interception of ballistic missiles fired by Iran. Each of the SM-3s, depending on the model, costs between $13 and $28 million. Hence, that one engagement cost U.S. taxpayers in the neighborhood of $52M to $196M.
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Indeed, a Center for Strategic and International Studies report found that, in order to counter China, the United States could end up expending 5,000 long-range missiles in just 3 weeks.
https://english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-east/2025/06/18/analysis-how-long-can-israel-and-iran-fight-and-how-is-it-impacting-us-stockpiles
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