The failure of Trump to seal a trade deal with China after talks in London underscores how China has now become the globe economic super power.
It has been able to leverage its dominance of the rare earth supply chain because the USA has nothing which China needs enough to yield.
Rare earth minerals and their magnets are essential for everything from US cars, nuclear submarines, chips, AI and fighter jets, and China holds a near-monopoly on these materials that are critical to American industries and defense.
To clarify, if China does not restore the critical minerals, US production lines grind to a halt. the US military industral complex freezes in an economic disaster created by Trump and his Soros crony Scott Bessent.
And the American public will blame Trump who started the trade war for a shrinking GDP, inflation and job losses.
Any plans Trump and his oligarch backers may have to start a war with China must now be laid aside.
In a war with China, the USA would risk total and instant defeat from China s superior military technology including hypersonic missiles.
US s real world economy set to take a hit just as US can no longer hide its insolvency due to the same fatal misjudgment by its arrogant, out of touch elite.
Trump s BBB is set to create higher budget deficits and inflation as his tax cuts during his first term did. This, just as the US gov is finding it more and more difficult to find buyers for its debt.
From media
Donald Trump has announced that the US trade deal with China is “done”, following the talks in London this week.
He explains that the US will get the access to Chinese rare earth minerals, and magnets, which his officials had been pushing for at Lancaster House on Monday and Tuesday.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2025/jun/11/us-china-trade-war-rare-earths-inflation-stock-markets-business-live-news-updates
It was Trump who cut off that vital access. For him to now claim, and without any confirmation of details from China, that the US military will get access to what it had before he started his trade war, is a victory, shows the level of delusion Trump and his oligarchs are in.
Trump started the trade war on the assumption China needed to export to the USA more than the US needed Chinese imports and the Chinese needed US chips more than the US needed critical minerals.
That assumption has proven to be fatally flawed.
The consequences for the US industry, AI and military are potentially fatal as they run out of vital supplies of critical minerals.
The US military industrial complex s capacity to wage war has been damaged, perhaps fatally.
Far from needing the “very, very high-end Nvidia” chips that are capable of powering artificial intelligence systems, as Trump called them, China has its own possible far better chips and AI systems.
That would not be hard for China
An Apple study has confirmed that US AI models cannot reason, cannot power an AI revolution, are wasteful and so utterly useless that the US would have to start AI development from scratch. This despite, hundreds of billions of dollars being invested in them, decades of research.
To sum up, China has no need for Big Tech s useless products but the US does have a need for its critical minerals.
Trump s claim of a deal reach seems to be his usual mixture of bluster.
From China, we here the agreement reached seems to be just to keep talking about a plan to restore something of the previous status quo temporarily....
"American and Chinese negotiators agreed “in principle” to a framework on how to implement the consensus reached by the previous round of talks in Geneva last month and a phone call between the two countries’ leaders last week, China’s trade negotiator Li Chenggang told reporters in London, according to Chinese state broadcaster CGTN."
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/06/10/business/us-china-trade-talks-london-agreement-intl-hnk
Meanwhile, the clock is ticking for Trump to reach other trade deals with most of the rest of the world.
MAGA voters who elected Trump into office and pay his salary have a right to expect that he updates and assesses the economic strengths and weaknesses of China and tailors his policies according.
But far from showing a proper understanding of China s many strengths, Trump has preferred to bluff and lie and risk their jobs and the US economy in a mad gamble to take down China. Predictably, his bid has backfired spectacularly because facts are facts whether Trump wants to acknowledge them or not.
With no plan in sight, other than to role out "useless" Bitcoin, Trump seems to have sunk the US real world economy which he pledged to grow.
From media
US.-China trade talks target rare-earth exports, with tech and defense stocks exposed to potential disruptions.
This tit-for-tat approach increases pressure on companies like Nvidia (NVDA), Intel (INTC), Lockheed Martin (LMT), and General Electric (GE)—all of which depend on stable flows of critical parts and materials. If the talks stall, expect ripple effects across these names.
...
Industrials and tech stocks are most at risk if talks break down. Chipmakers and aerospace firms, in particular, are facing uncertainty tied to rare-earth access. Shares of Intel, Broadcom (AVGO), Boeing (BA), and Raytheon (RTX) may come under pressure.
https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/sp-500-u-s-china-trade-talks-raise-rare-earth-risks-for-nvidia-and-broadcom-1524646
There have been concerns expressed that unless their supply is increased, sections of US industry, especially auto production, could start coming to a halt.
“The main American user of samarium is Lockheed Martin,” Bradsher wrote, “an aerospace and military contractor that puts about 50 pounds of samarium magnets in each F-35 fighter jet.”
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Supply-Chain/China-s-critical-mineral-curbs-shake-AI-data-center-suppliers2
/High stakes
It's hard to overstate how high the stakes have become.
What started as a trade war has morphed into a dangerous supply chain war with the potential to wreak deep economic harm.
And by most assessments, it is China that has the upper hand.
Indeed, while the US has introduced a spate of new measures designed to block China's access to high-tech chips, China has moved to slow and complicate the exports of crucial rare earth minerals to the US.
These metals are absolutely vital in the manufacture of everything from cars to weaponry, and China has the vast majority of the world's supply.
The new controls have brought some production lines to the brink of standstill, and the West is alarmed.
On the ground here in China you get a sense that while this standoff will cause pain, there is confidence too, particularly in its ability to home grow the type of technology the US is attempting to block.
Indeed, as these talks were ongoing, a branch of the Chinese government was showing foreign journalists around usually hard-to-access high-tech businesses.
...
But I believe it can be solved. The current technology dispute doesn't affect us very much, because we rely on ourselves."
Indeed, that is the key problem for the US.
China can increasingly rely on itself and is making rapid progress in the development of its own chips and AI technology.
In contrast, the US is totally beholden to China on rare earths; the development of its own supply would be lengthy and extortionately expensive.
https://news.sky.com/story/us-china-trade-talks-the-fact-neither-side-is-saying-much-on-the-outcome-says-a-lot-13382040
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