RUSSIA TO CLOSE KEY OIL PIELINE TO BERLIN, EASETERN GERMANY, NATO S EASTRN FLANK

A double whammy for Merz as oil both from Russia and the Persian Gulf is set to be taken off the market....

From media

Russia will halt oil shipments from Kazakhstan to Germany via the Druzhba pipeline starting May 1, according to sources.

The sources, speaking anonymously, said a revised export schedule has been communicated to both Kazakhstan and Germany.

A halt to Kazakh flows would add more uncertainty to Germany’s fuel supply as the Iran war disrupts energy shipments from the Middle East only a few years after Berlin’s decades-long energy ties with Russia were upended by the war in Ukraine.

Kazakhstan’s oil exports to Germany via Russia’s Druzhba pipeline totalled 2.146 million metric tons, or around 43,000 barrels per day, in 2025, an increase of 44% from 2024, and 730,000 tons in the first quarter of 2026.

A complete halt would remove about 17% of the up to 12 million metric tons of oil a year processed by Germany’s PCK refinery – one of the country’s largest – in the northeastern town of Schwedt, fuel from which powers 9 out of 10 cars in the Berlin and Brandenburg region.

https://stratnewsglobal.com/central-asia/kazakhstan/russia-to-halt-kazakhstan-oil-flow-to-germany-from-may/

Kasachstans Ölexporte nach Deutschland über die russische Druschba-Pipeline beliefen sich 2025 auf insgesamt rund 43.000 Barrel pro Tag, ein Anstieg von 44 Prozent gegenüber 2024. Mit diesem Öl werden neun von zehn Autos in der Region Berlin-Brandenburg betrieben. Die PCK Raffinerie ist außerdem von entscheidender Bedeutung für den Flughafen Berlin-Brandenburg BER. Darüber hinaus ist die Raffinerie eine wichtige Infrastruktur für Polen, die Ukraine und die Nato-Ostflanke. Gerade die militärische Komponente könnte bei möglichen russischen Abschaltplänen eine Rolle gespielt haben.

https://www.berliner-zeitung.de/article/russland-stoppt-oellieferungen-nach-schwedt-10031938

OPEN AI

Based on data as of early 2026, Kazakhstan is a crucial supplier for the PCK Schwedt refinery, providing approximately 17% to 30% of that specific refinery's annual needs (1.2–2.1 million metric tons per year), which accounts for a small, albeit strategic, fraction of Germany's overall oil imports. 

The PCK Schwedt refinery, which services Berlin and Brandenburg, operates on this Kazakh crude, which is transported via the northern Druzhba pipeline, as well as alternative supply via the Polish port of Gdansk. 

Kazakh Oil Processed in Schwedt vs. Other Refineries (Approx. 2025-2026) 

Refinery/Region Primary Oil Source Role in German Supply

PCK Schwedt (NE Germany) Kazakhstan (via Druzhba), USA, Norway (via Gdansk) ~17-30% of its (~12M ton) capacity, ~90% of regional fuel

Miro (Karlsruhe) Norway, USA, Middle East (via pipelines) High Capacity, no/low Kazakh dependency

Bayernoil (S Germany) Norway, USA, Middle East (via pipelines) High Capacity, no/low Kazakh dependency

Other Refineries (West) Norway, USA, Middle East (via sea) High Capacity, primarily non-Kazakh

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/04/22/putin-stokes-european-fuel-crisis-cutting-off-oil-germany/