Trump s plan to lower oil prices to 40 USD to deprive Russia of revenue earned from oil exports may need to include a plan for shale oil, which costs about 60 USD to extract.
In fact, two thirds of US oil comes from shale oil or fracking.
The cost for extracting a barrell in the USA is estimated to be between 57 and 75 USD.
If Trump wants to get the price of oil down to 40 USD a barrell, that would put shale producers out of business.
If shale producers go bankrupt or freeze production, prices will soar.
It is not clear how quickly Trump can bring less expensive sources of oil ioto the market by drilling wells into oil fields etc If vast amounts of oil can be made available from opening new oil wells in a few weeks then that might enable him to lower the price to 40 USD.
So, Trump s plan to lower oil prices to harm Russia could backfire spectacularly and cause shortages and soaring oil prices in the USA unless oil fields are opened very fast.
Plus, plans to export US gas could also lead to soaring prices in the USA as supply dries up.
https://www.rystadenergy.com/news/upstream-breakeven-shale-oil-inflation
https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=847&t=6
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/01/27/oil-lng-trump-america-exports-gas-prices/
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